Theater Economics: Why Are There So Few Sequels?

A few weeks ago Dave Itzkoff reported that Andrew Lloyd Webber was creating a sequel to “The Phantom of the Opera,” entitled Phantom: Love Never Dies.” While this is not the first theatrical sequel ever penned, it is relatively rare.

But why? When a film is a hit, it is virtually guaranteed to be followed by a sequel — a continuation of the original plot, generally with the same characters, actors and themes. Make “Austin Powers 2.

Naked Gun 33 1/3.” “Scary Movie 4.” “Halloween 5.” If people enjoyed the first one, they’ll come out to see the next one — or four — even if the sequels aren’t nearly as good as the original.

In other words, many theater producers and investors hoping to make money favor “safe” productions, which, given evidence from Hollywood, should include sequels. Yet sequels to theatrical blockbusters (think “The Producers”) are almost unheard of. I’m not talking about those cultural products originally crafted as a serial, like the “The Coast of Utopia” or “Angels in America.” I’m talking about the productions that were done after the original became a commercial hit, a la “Revenge of the Nerds.

So what’s so different between the theater and film?
There are a few potential explanations for why sequels are less attractive on the Rialto than in Hollywood. (Feel free to suggest your own theories in the comments.

For one, moviegoers interested in a sequel can rent the original to get caught up on the plotline. The same is not generally true for theatrical productions. If Lord Lloyd Webber decided to write “Cats 2,” you’d have trouble tracking down a stage version of “Cats [1]” to figure out who this Grizabella is that everyone’s talking about. (Though, of course, there is a filmed version of the show now.

“There are way more sequels in theater than there used to be,” argues Tyler Cowen, an economics professor at George Mason University who has written about the economics of the arts. “If the Brady Bunch makes it into a theatrical performance, I think of that as like a sequel. They’re building upon other media where people will want to see something they already know they’ll like.

Addendum: There have been a few cases where successful musicals were made into feature films, and then turned into sequels. “Grease 2” comes to mind, as does “Hairspray 2,” which is reportedly in the works. (“Hairspray 2,” oddly enough, would be the sequel to a film version of a musical version of a film.) “High School: The Musical” has enjoyed at least one filmed sequel that was subsequently adapted for the stage