daily racing form

Eight hours from now, the scratch of I Want Revenge will be, literally and figuratively, a mere footnote to the 135th Kentucky Derby. Racing will have its newest hero, at least for two weeks, and any reference to the absentees from this field will be considered churlish and distracting. So let's get it out of the way now.
This Derby is now missing all of last fall's top 2-year-olds (Midshipman, Vineyard Haven, Old Fashioned)and both of this spring's top 3-year-olds (I Want Revenge and Quality Road), and lacks the winner of every single Grade 1 dirt race to date for this crop. Maybe it turns out that the best 3-year-old was none of the above, and maybe we'll see a Derby winner so impressive that it wouldn't have mattered who else lined up against him. Whoever wins it will have beaten 18 opponents including some nice 3-year-olds, but the race suddenly feels like far from the definitive test for this class.

On the bright side, maybe it makes this a more interesting season, through the Triple Crown and beyond. The injuries to I Want Revenge and Quality Road appear to be relatively minor and they could be back soon. The 3-year-old championship will not be decided today. The last time a horse this prominent was scratched on Derby morning was in 1992, when A.P. Indy came up with a bruised foot. He returned to win the Peter Pan three weeks later and then the Belmont, and the Breeders' Cup Classic at year's end to be named the Horse of the Year. Quick, name that year's 1-2-3 Derby finishers.

Anyway, you can only play the Derby you have, not the Derby you wish you had. I liked I Want Revenge to win the race and now I scratch into Dunkirk. I'll root for him and play the rest of the card with interest and enthusiasm. First up, I'll try to rejigger the likely odds for the field in the absence of the morning-line and Oaks-Derby double favorite.

Oh, the 1992 Derby? Lil E. Tee, Casual Lies, Dance Floor.
12:30 pm: Still no updated actual win-pool odds on the Derby, so let's repeat last jight's exercise of deriving Derby odds from the Oaks-Derby double will-pays while removing I Want Revenge from the pool. The Rachel Alexandra-I Want Revenge double was the most heavily-plated one, accounting for just over 22 percent of the live tickets and implying that I Want Revenge would be the 2.80-1 favorite by post time.

The revised pool percentages now tab Friesan Fire as the 5-2 favorite, followed by Dunkirk at 4-1, Pioneerof the Nile at 5-1, then Hold Me Back at 12-1 and Desert Party and Chocolate Candy at 13-1. The anomaly continues to be General Quarters, 5-1 in the win-pool odds still being run on a crawl by TVG but more like 20-1 as implied by the double will-pays.